| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP13900 |
| DP13900 Anchored Inflation Expectations | |
| Carlos Carvalho; Stefano Eusepi; Bruce Preston | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-07-30 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We develop a theory of low-frequency movements in inflation expectations, and use it to interpret joint dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations for the United States and other countries over the post-war period. In our theory long-run inflation expectations are endogenous. They are driven by short-run inflation surprises, in a way that depends on recent forecasting performance and monetary policy. This distinguishes our theory from common explanations of low-frequency properties of inflation. The model, estimated using only inflation and short-term forecasts from professional surveys, accurately predicts observed measures of long-term inflation expectations and identifies episodes of unanchored expectations. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Anchored expectations Inflation expectations Survey data |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp13900-1 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542778 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carlos Carvalho,Stefano Eusepi,Bruce Preston. DP13900 Anchored Inflation Expectations. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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