全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP13988 Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP13988
	DP13988 Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations
	Marco Francesconi; Emanuele Ciani; Ben Etheridge
发表日期	2019-09-11
出版年	2019
语种	英语
摘要	Subjective expectations about future policy play an important role in individuals’ welfare. We examine how workers’ expectations about pension reform vary with proximity to reforms, information cost, and aggregate information acquisition. We construct a new pan-European dataset of reform implementations and government announcements, and combine it with individual-level representative survey data on expectations about future reforms and country-level data on online search. We ﬁnd: (1) Expectations are revised upward by about 10 percentage points in the year leading up to a reform, from a median of 50%, regardless of whether the reform is announced; (2) Aggregate online search increases after announcements, when the cost of information is lower; (3) Reform announcements and online information gathering are substitutes in the formation of expectations; (4) Expectations do not converge as a result of announcements or implementations; (5) The eﬀect of information on expectations varies substantially across workers and systematically with observed characteristics that proxy cognitive ability and information value. These ﬁndings, interpreted using a model of rational inattention, reveal substantial informational rigidities, with welfare costs that run into trillions of Euros.
主题	Labour Economics
关键词	Expectations Retirement Pension reform uncertainty Reform announcement Online search Rational inattention
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp13988
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542869
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marco Francesconi,Emanuele Ciani,Ben Etheridge. DP13988 Policy Uncertainty and Information Flows: Evidence from Pension Reform Expectations. 2019.