G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP13990
DP13990 The War Next Door and the Reds are Coming: The Spanish Civil War and the Portuguese Stock Market
Diogo Leitão; Jaime Pereira; João Pereira dos Santos; José Tavares
发表日期2019-09-12
出版年2019
语种英语
摘要The Spanish Civil War (July 1936 to April 1939) was a key event that paved the way for World War II, unfolding with unprecedented violence and uncertainty over the its outcome. In this paper, we analyze the impact of the events of the Spanish Civil War on the Portuguese stock returns. Portugal is a particularly interesting case for analysis given its geographical exposure and historical ties to Spain as well as its political ties to the Nationalist side. Unlike previous studies of stock market responses to World War II outcomes, in our period of analysis the world at large was at peace, allowing for a clearer attribution of causation. We examine investors’ reactions to news from the Spanish War using a panel of weekly returns for firms listed on the Lisbon Stock market, after classifying a series of important developments of the Spanish Civil War, classified according to its nature – military or political, and which contender emerged as favored – the Republicans, on the left, or the Nationalists, on the right. We run dynamic specifications with firm and month fixed effects, controlling for the reference interest rate in London, and events in Portugal. Our results reveal that Spanish Civil War events affect returns negatively, especially events that are military in nature. When we break down our sample into overseas firms – those whose most significant assets were located in Africa – and non-overseas firms, the latter present more significant effects from the event variables, especially from the Pro-Republican military events. Our findings are robust to the different specifications and suggest that both general uncertainty and partisan preferences affect Portuguese returns.
主题Economic History
关键词Economic history Spanish civil war Stock price Financial markets Uncertainty
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp13990
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542871
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Diogo Leitão,Jaime Pereira,João Pereira dos Santos,et al. DP13990 The War Next Door and the Reds are Coming: The Spanish Civil War and the Portuguese Stock Market. 2019.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Diogo Leitão]的文章
[Jaime Pereira]的文章
[João Pereira dos Santos]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Diogo Leitão]的文章
[Jaime Pereira]的文章
[João Pereira dos Santos]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Diogo Leitão]的文章
[Jaime Pereira]的文章
[João Pereira dos Santos]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。