全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP13993 The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP13993
	DP13993 The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom
	Ben Broadbent; Federico Di Pace; Thomas Drechsel; Richard Harrison; Silvana Tenreyro
发表日期	2019-09-13
出版年	2019
语种	英语
摘要	The UK economy has experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. This paper develops and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors to characterize these adjustments. We demonstrate that many of the effects of the referendum result can be conceptualized as news about a future slowdown in productivity growth in the tradable sector. Simulations show that the responses of the model economy to such news are consistent with key patterns in UK data. While overall economic growth slows, an immediate permanent fall in the relative price of non-tradable output (the real exchange rate) induces a temporary “sweet spot” for tradable producers before the slowdown in the tradable sector productivity associated with Brexit occurs. Resources are reallocated towards the tradable sector, tradable output growth rises and net exports increase. These developments reverse after the productivity decline in the tradable sector materializes. The negative news about tradable sector productivity also lead to a decline in domestic interest rates relative to world interest rates and to a reduction in investment growth, while employment remains relatively stable. As a by-product of our Brexit simulations, we provide a quantitative analysis of the UK business cycle.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Growth
关键词	Brexit Productivity Trade Growth Exchange rate adjustment Uk economy Tradable sector
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp13993
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/542874
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ben Broadbent,Federico Di Pace,Thomas Drechsel,et al. DP13993 The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the United Kingdom. 2019.