| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP14185
|
| DP14185 The importance of beliefs in shaping macroeconomic outcomes |
| Roger Farmer
|
| 发表日期 | 2019-12-09
|
| 出版年 | 2019
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | For the past thirty years of the history of macroeconomic thought, the Indeterminacy School of Macroeconomics has used general equilibrium models with indeterminate equilibria to understand the independent role of beliefs in shaping macroeconomic outcomes. In this paper I review the most recent advances in the indeterminacy agenda, Keynesian Search Theory, and I advance that agenda by introducing self-fulfilling beliefs to a Keynesian Search model in two different ways. One variant of the model is driven by an exogenous process for investment expenditure. If investment is exogenous, the only way to restore full employment is by replacing private investment with public investment. The second variant of the model is driven by consumer confidence. If consumer confidence is exogenous, treasury or central bank intervention in the asset markets is a more effective means of restoring full employment than fiscal policy. In either scenario, increased government consumption will not be effective at maintaining full employment in the face of permanently depressed beliefs about the value of private assets. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
|
| 关键词 | Keynesian economics
Unemployment
Fiscal policy
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14185-0
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543071
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Roger Farmer. DP14185 The importance of beliefs in shaping macroeconomic outcomes. 2019.
|
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