| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14253 |
| DP14253 The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty | |
| Tarek Hassan; Stephan Hollander; Laurence van Lent; Ahmed Tahoun | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-12-26 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using tools from computational linguistics, we construct new measures of the impact of Brexit on listed firms in the United States and around the world; these measures are based on the proportion of discussions in quarterly earnings conference calls on the costs, benefits, and risks associated with the UK's intention to leave the EU. We identify which firms expect to gain or lose from Brexit and which are most affected by Brexit uncertainty. We then estimate effects of the different types of Brexit exposure on firm-level outcomes. We find that the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty extends far beyond British or even European firms; US and international firms most exposed to Brexit uncertainty lost a substantial fraction of their market value and have also reduced hiring and investment. In addition to Brexit uncertainty (the second moment), we find that international firms overwhelmingly expect negative direct effects from Brexit (the first moment) should it come to pass. Most prominently, firms expect difficulties from regulatory divergence, reduced labor mobility, limited trade access, and the costs of post-Brexit operational adjustments. Consistent with the predictions of canonical theory, this negative sentiment is recognized and priced in stock markets but has not yet significantly affected firm actions. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Growth |
| 关键词 | Brexit Uncertainty Sentiment Machine learning Cross-country effects |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14253 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543140 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tarek Hassan,Stephan Hollander,Laurence van Lent,et al. DP14253 The Global Impact of Brexit Uncertainty. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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