| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14255 |
| DP14255 Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade? | |
| Isaac Baley; Laura Veldkamp; Michael Waugh | |
| 发表日期 | 2019-12-28 |
| 出版年 | 2019 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Common wisdom holds that uncertainty impedes trade|yet we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. In equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and variance in returns to exporting. This implies that trade can increase or decrease with uncertainty, depending on preferences. Under general conditions on preferences, we characterize the importance of these forces using a sufficient statistics approach. Higher uncertainty leads to increases in trade because agents receive improved terms of trade, particularly in states of nature in which consumption is most valuable. Trade creates value, in part, by offering a mechanism for risk sharing, and risk sharing is most effective when both parties are uninformed. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Trade Uncertainty |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14255 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543142 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Isaac Baley,Laura Veldkamp,Michael Waugh. DP14255 Can Global Uncertainty Promote International Trade?. 2019. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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