| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14323 |
| DP14323 Nowcasting German GDP | |
| Paolo Andreini; Thomas Hasenzagl; Lucrezia Reichlin; Charlotte Senftleben-König; Till Strohsal | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-01-16 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper develops a nowcasting model for the German economy. The model outperforms a number of alternatives and produces forecasts not only for GDP but also for other key variables. We show that the inclusion of foreign variables improves the model’s performance, while financial variables do not. Additionally, a comprehensive model averaging exercise reveals that factor extraction in a single model delivers slightly better results than averaging across models. Finally, we estimate a “news” index for the German economy constructed as a weighted average of the nowcast errors related to each variable included in the model. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14323 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543215 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Paolo Andreini,Thomas Hasenzagl,Lucrezia Reichlin,et al. DP14323 Nowcasting German GDP. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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