| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14365 |
| DP14365 Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications | |
| Kenza Benhima; Céline Poilly | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-01-30 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We assess the role of demand noise (excessive optimism or pessimism about demand) together with supply noise (excessive optimism or pessimism about supply). To do so, we propose a methodology to decompose business cycles into supply, demand, supply noise and demand noise shocks, using a structural vector autoregression model. Key to our identification of both supply noise and demand noise is the use of sign restrictions on survey expectation errors about output growth and about inflation. We show that demand-related noise shocks have a negative effect on output and contribute substantially to its fluctuations. Monetary policy and private information seem to play a key role in the transmission of demand noise shocks. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Business cycle Information friction Noise shock Svar with sign restrictions |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14365 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543258 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kenza Benhima,Céline Poilly. DP14365 Does demand noise matter? Identification and implications. 2020. |
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