全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP14442 Debt and Financial Crises

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP14442
	DP14442 Debt and Financial Crises
	Wee Chian Koh; M. Ayhan Kose; Peter Nagle; Franziska Ohnsorge; Naotaka Sugawara
发表日期	2020-02-24
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	Emerging market and developing economies have experienced recurrent episodes of rapid debt accumulation over the past fifty years. This paper examines the consequences of debt accumulation using a three-pronged approach: an event study of debt accumulation episodes in 100 emerging market and developing economies since 1970; a series of econometric models examining the linkages between debt and the probability of financial crises; and a set of case studies of rapid debt buildup that ended in crises. The paper reports four main results. First, episodes of debt accumulation are common, with more than 500 episodes occurring since 1970. Second, around half of these episodes were associated with financial crises which typically had worse economic outcomes than those without crises—after 8 years, output per capita was typically 6-10 percent lower and investment 15-22 percent weaker in crisis episodes. Third, a rapid buildup of debt, whether public or private, increased the likelihood of a financial crisis, as did a larger share of short-term external debt, higher debt service, and lower reserves cover. Fourth, countries that experienced financial crises frequently employed combinations of unsustainable fiscal, monetary and financial sector policies, and often suffered from structural and institutional weaknesses.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词	Financial crises Currency crises Debt crises Banking crises Public debt Private debt External debt
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp14442
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543340
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wee Chian Koh,M. Ayhan Kose,Peter Nagle,et al. DP14442 Debt and Financial Crises. 2020.