G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP14460
DP14460 The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
Lutz Kilian; Xiaoqing Zhou
发表日期2020-03-01
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between alternative oil market models, let alone the basis for the sometimes divergent conclusions reached in the literature. The purpose of this survey is to provide a guide to this literature. Our focus is on the econometric foundations of the analysis of oil market models with special attention to the identifying assumptions and methods of inference. We not only explain how the workhorse models in this literature have evolved, but also examine alternative oil market VAR models. We help the reader understand why the latter models sometimes generated unconventional, puzzling or erroneous conclusions. Finally, we discuss the construction of extraneous measures of oil demand and oil supply shocks that have been used as external or internal instruments for VAR models.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词Elasticity Identification Model specification Bayesian estimation Structural var Textual analysis
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp14460
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543358
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lutz Kilian,Xiaoqing Zhou. DP14460 The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models. 2020.
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