| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14484 |
| DP14484 Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis | |
| Danilo Leiva-León; Gabriel Pérez-Quirós; Eyno Rots | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-03-12 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose an empirical framework to measure the degree of weakness of the global economy in real-time. It relies on nonlinear factor models designed to infer recessionary episodes of heterogeneous deepness, and fitted to the largest advanced economies (U.S., Euro Area, Japan, U.K., Canada and Australia) and emerging markets (China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa). Based on such inferences, we construct a Global Weakness Index that has three main features. First, it can be updated as soon as new regional data is released, as we show by measuring the economic effects of coronavirus. Second, it provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy’s weakness. Third, it allows to perform robust risk assessments based on the probability that the level of global weakness would exceed a certain threshold of interest in every period of time. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | International business cycles Factor model Nonlinear Coronavirus |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14484 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543383 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Danilo Leiva-León,Gabriel Pérez-Quirós,Eyno Rots. DP14484 Real-Time Weakness of the Global Economy: A First Assessment of the Coronavirus Crisis. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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