| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14492 |
| DP14492 Growth-and-Risk Trade-off | |
| Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas; Luc Laeven; Gabriel Pérez-Quirós | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-03-14 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the effects of credit over the business cycle, distinguishing between expansions and contractions. We find that there is a growth and risk trade-off in the pace of credit growth over the business cycle. While rapid credit growth tends to be followed by deeper recessions, we also find that credit growth has a positive impact on the duration of expansions. This poses a trade-off for the policymaker: Limiting the buildup of financial risk to avoid a deep recession can negatively affect the cumulation of economic growth during the expansion. We show that intermediate levels of credit growth maximize long-term growth while limiting volatility. Macroprudential policies should be used to manage this growth and risk trade-off, striking a balance between allowing expansions to last longer and avoiding deep recessions. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Business cycles Macroprudential policies Credit growth |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14492 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543391 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Maria Dolores Gadea Rivas,Luc Laeven,Gabriel Pérez-Quirós. DP14492 Growth-and-Risk Trade-off. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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