全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP14559 Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP14559
	DP14559 Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered
	Oscar Jorda; Moritz Schularick; Alan M. Taylor
发表日期	2020-04-04
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies could be more beneficial than widely thought. This paper introduces a new test to show that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble “mini-disasters.” By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show empirically that this is true for advanced economies since 1870. Focusing on peacetime eras, we develop a tractable local projection framework to estimate consumption growth paths for normal and financial-crisis recessions. Introducing random coefficient local projections (RCLP) we get an easy and transparent mapping from the estimates to a calibrated simulation model with disasters of variable severity. Simulations show that substantial welfare costs arise not just from the large rare disasters, but also from the smaller but more frequent mini-disasters in every cycle. On average, and in post-WW2 data, even with low risk aversion, households would sacrifice about 15 percent of consumption to avoid such cyclical fluctuations.
主题	Economic History ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	Fluctuations Asymmetry Local projections Random coefficients Macroprudential policy
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp14559-0
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543464
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Oscar Jorda,Moritz Schularick,Alan M. Taylor. DP14559 Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered. 2020.