| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14596 |
| DP14596 COVID-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods | |
| Anton Korinek; Zachary Bethune | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-04-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We analyze the externalities that arise when social and economic interactions transmit infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Individually rational agents do not internalize that they impose infection externalities upon. In an SIR model calibrated to capture the main features of COVID-19 in the US economy, we show that private agents perceive the cost an additional infection to be around $80k whereas the social cost including infection externalities is more than three times higher, around $286k. This misvaluation has stark implications for how society ultimately overcomes the disease: individually rational susceptible agents act cautiously to “flatten the curve” of infections, but the disease is not overcome until herd immunity is acquired, with a slow recovery over several years. By contrast, the socially optimal approach in our model contains and eradicates the disease, producing a much milder recession. Eradication is optimal even if the infected and susceptible cannot be targeted independently, although the economic cost is much higher. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Covid-19 Infection externalities Cost of disease Social distancing |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14596 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543503 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Anton Korinek,Zachary Bethune. DP14596 COVID-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods. 2020. |
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