G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP14596
DP14596 COVID-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods
Anton Korinek; Zachary Bethune
发表日期2020-04-11
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要We analyze the externalities that arise when social and economic interactions transmit infectious diseases such as COVID-19. Individually rational agents do not internalize that they impose infection externalities upon. In an SIR model calibrated to capture the main features of COVID-19 in the US economy, we show that private agents perceive the cost an additional infection to be around $80k whereas the social cost including infection externalities is more than three times higher, around $286k. This misvaluation has stark implications for how society ultimately overcomes the disease: individually rational susceptible agents act cautiously to “flatten the curve” of infections, but the disease is not overcome until herd immunity is acquired, with a slow recovery over several years. By contrast, the socially optimal approach in our model contains and eradicates the disease, producing a much milder recession. Eradication is optimal even if the infected and susceptible cannot be targeted independently, although the economic cost is much higher.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Public Economics
关键词Covid-19 Infection externalities Cost of disease Social distancing
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp14596
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543503
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Anton Korinek,Zachary Bethune. DP14596 COVID-19 Infection Externalities: Trading Off Lives vs. Livelihoods. 2020.
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