全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP14607 Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the "Swedish Solution''

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP14607
	DP14607 Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the "Swedish Solution''
	Dirk Krueger; Harald Uhlig; Taojun Xie
发表日期	2020-04-12
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	In this paper, we argue that endogenous shifts in private consumption behavior across sectors of the economy can act as a potent mitigation mechanism during an epidemic or when the economy is re-opened after a temporary lockdown. We introduce a SIR epidemiological model into a neoclassical production economy in which goods are distinguished by the degree to which they can be consumed at home rather than in a social, possibly contagious context. We demonstrate within the model, that the “Swedish solution” of letting the epidemic play out without much government intervention and allowing agents to reduce their overall consumption as well as shift their consumption behavior towards relatively safe sectors can lead to substantial mitigation of the economic and human costs of the COVID-19 crisis. We argue that significant seasonal variation in the infection risk is needed to account for the two-wave nature of the pandemic. We estimate the model on Swedish health data and show that it predicts the dynamics of weekly deaths, aggregate as well as sectoral consumption, that accord well with the empirical record and the two-waves for Sweden for 2020 and early 2021. We also characterize the allocation a social planner would choose and how it would dictate sectoral consumption patterns. In so doing, we demonstrate that the laissez-faire outcome with sectoral reallocation mitigates the economic and health crisis but possibly at the expense of unnecessary deaths and too massive a decline in economic activity.
主题	Labour Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Public Economics
关键词	Epidemic Coronavirus Macroeconomics Sectoral substitution
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp14607-1
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543514
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dirk Krueger,Harald Uhlig,Taojun Xie. DP14607 Macroeconomic Dynamics and Reallocation in an Epidemic: Evaluating the "Swedish Solution''. 2020.