| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14699 |
| DP14699 Assessing the Consequences of Quarantines During a Pandemic | |
| Rikard Forslid; Mathias Herzing | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-03 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper analyzes the epidemiological and economic e§ects of quarantines. We use a basic epidemiologic model, a SEIR-model, that is calibrated to roughly resemble the COVID- 19 pandemic, and we assume that individuals that become infected or are isolated on average lose a share of their productivity. An early quarantine will essentially postpone but not alter the course of the infection at a cost that increases in the duration and the extent of the quarantine. A quarantine starting at a later stage of the pandemic reduces the number of infected persons and economic losses, but generates a higher peak level of infectious people. A longer quarantine dampens the peak of the pandemic and reduces deaths, but implies higher economic losses. Both the peak share of infectious individuals and economic losses are U-shaped in relation to the share of the population in quarantine. A quarantine covering a moderate share of the population leads to a lower peak, fewer deaths and lower economic costs, but it implies that the peak of the pandemic occurs earlier. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Pandemics Quarantine Seir-model Covid-19 |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14699 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543616 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rikard Forslid,Mathias Herzing. DP14699 Assessing the Consequences of Quarantines During a Pandemic. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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