| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14711 |
| DP14711 Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities | |
| Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde; Chad Jones | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-04 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use data on deaths in New York City, various U.S. states, and various countries around the world to estimate a standard epidemiological model of COVID-19. We allow for a time-varying contact rate in order to capture behavioral and policy-induced changes associated with social distancing. We simulate the model forward to consider possible futures for various countries, states, and cities, including the potential impact of herd immunity on re-opening. Our current baseline mortality rate (IFR) is assumed to be 0.8% but we recognize there is substantial uncertainty about this number. Our model fits the death data equally well with alternative mortality rates of 0.3% or 1.0%, so this parameter is unidentified in our data. However, its value matters enormously for the extent to which various places can relax social distancing without spurring a resurgence of deaths. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Sird model Covid-19 Estimation |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14711 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543629 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde,Chad Jones. DP14711 Estimating and Simulating a SIRD Model of COVID-19 for Many Countries, States, and Cities. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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