| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14715 |
| DP14715 Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle | |
| Federico Ravenna; Matteo Cacciatore | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-05 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We show that occasional deviations from efficient wage setting generate strong and state-dependent amplification of uncertainty shocks and can explain the cyclical behavior of empirical measures of uncertainty. Central to our analysis is the existence of matching frictions in the labor market and an occasionally binding constraint on downward wage adjustment. The wage constraint enhances the concavity of firms' hiring rule, generating an endogenous profit-risk premium. In turn, uncertainty shocks increase the profit-risk premium when the economy operates close to the wage constraint. This implies that higher uncertainty can severely deepen a recession, although its impact is weaker on average. Additionally, the variance of the unforecastable component of future economic outcomes always increases at times of low economic activity. Thus, measured uncertainty rises in a recession even in the absence of uncertainty shocks. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Uncertainty Business cycle Unemployment Occasionally binding constraints |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14715 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543633 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Federico Ravenna,Matteo Cacciatore. DP14715 Uncertainty, Wages, and the Business Cycle. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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