G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP14744
DP14744 The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden
Benjamin Born; Alexander Dietrich; Gernot Müller
发表日期2020-05-11
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要We quantify the lockdown effect: the extent to which a lockdown limits the spread of COVID-19 infections. For this purpose we focus on Sweden---one of the few countries without a lockdown---and use synthetic control techniques to develop a counterfactual lockdown scenario. Based on a donor pool of European countries, we construct a control unit that behaves just like Sweden in terms of infection dynamics before it is put under lockdown for 8.5 weeks. The outcome in the control unit approximates the counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden. Three findings stand out. First, at the end of the lockdown period, COVID-19 infections and deaths in Sweden would have been reduced by one half and one third, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3 to 4 weeks only. Third, we analyze Google mobility reports and find that actual mobility adjustments in Sweden are similar to those in the control unit---in both cases there is evidence for social distancing, but more so in the control unit.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词Covid-19 Lockdown Counterfactual Synthetic control unit Infections Voluntary social restraint Google mobility reports
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp14744-0
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543667
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Benjamin Born,Alexander Dietrich,Gernot Müller. DP14744 The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden. 2020.
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