| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14744 |
| DP14744 The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden | |
| Benjamin Born; Alexander Dietrich; Gernot Müller | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We quantify the lockdown effect: the extent to which a lockdown limits the spread of COVID-19 infections. For this purpose we focus on Sweden---one of the few countries without a lockdown---and use synthetic control techniques to develop a counterfactual lockdown scenario. Based on a donor pool of European countries, we construct a control unit that behaves just like Sweden in terms of infection dynamics before it is put under lockdown for 8.5 weeks. The outcome in the control unit approximates the counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden. Three findings stand out. First, at the end of the lockdown period, COVID-19 infections and deaths in Sweden would have been reduced by one half and one third, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3 to 4 weeks only. Third, we analyze Google mobility reports and find that actual mobility adjustments in Sweden are similar to those in the control unit---in both cases there is evidence for social distancing, but more so in the control unit. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Covid-19 Lockdown Counterfactual Synthetic control unit Infections Voluntary social restraint Google mobility reports |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14744-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543667 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Benjamin Born,Alexander Dietrich,Gernot Müller. DP14744 The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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