| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14744 |
| DP14744 The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden | |
| Benjamin Born; Alexander Dietrich; Gernot Müller | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | While most countries imposed a lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 infections, Sweden did not. To quantify the lockdown effect, we approximate a counterfactual lockdown scenario for Sweden through the outcome in a synthetic control unit. We find, first, that a 9-week lockdown in the first half of 2020 would have reduced infections and deaths by about 75% and 38%, respectively. Second, the lockdown effect starts to materialize with a delay of 3-4 weeks only. Third, the actual adjustment of mobility patterns in Sweden suggests there has been substantial voluntary social restraint, although the adjustment was less strong than under the lockdown scenario. Lastly, we find that a lockdown would not have caused much additional output loss. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Covid-19 Lockdown Counterfactual Synthetic control unit Voluntary social restraint Google mobility reports Output loss |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14744-1 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543668 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Benjamin Born,Alexander Dietrich,Gernot Müller. DP14744 The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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