| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14789 |
| DP14789 The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil | |
| Diogo Britto; paolo pinotti; Breno Sampaio | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-20 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We investigate the effect of job loss and unemployment benefits on criminal behavior, exploiting individual-level data on the universe of workers and criminal cases in Brazil over the 2009-2017 period. We match workers displaced upon plausibly exogenous mass layoffs with observationally-equivalent control groups to identify dynamic treatment effects of job loss while allowing for treatment effect heterogeneity. In our preferred specification, the probability of criminal prosecution increases by 23% upon job loss and remains approximately constant during the following years. Our unusually large dataset allows us to precisely estimate increases in almost all types of crimes -- including offenses with no economic motivation -- as well as spillover effects on other household members. The estimated effects remain robust when restricting to arrests ``in flagrante", which are less subject to differential reporting by employment status. We then evaluate the mitigating effect of unemployment benefits leveraging on discontinuous changes in eligibility. Regression discontinuity estimates suggest that unemployment benefits covering 3 to 5 months after displacement completely offset potential crime increases upon job loss, especially for liquidity-constrained individuals, although this effect completely vanishes upon benefit expiration. Our findings point at liquidity constraints and psychological stress as main drivers of criminal behavior upon job loss, while substitution between time on the job and leisure does not seem to play an important role. |
| 主题 | Labour Economics ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Unemployment Crime Unemployment insurance Registry data |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14789 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543719 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Diogo Britto,paolo pinotti,Breno Sampaio. DP14789 The Effect of Job Loss and Unemployment Insurance on Crime in Brazil. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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