| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14798 |
| DP14798 A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf | |
| Lutz Kilian; Nomikos Nikos; Xiaoqing Zhou | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-05-23 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using a novel dataset, we develop a structural model of the Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) market between the Arabian Gulf and the Far East. We study how fluctuations in oil tanker rates, oil exports, shipowner profits, and bunker fuel prices are determined by shocks to the supply and demand for oil tankers, to the utilization of tankers, and to bunker fuel costs. Our analysis shows that time charter rates respond only slightly to fuel cost shocks. In response to higher fuel costs, voyage profits decline, as cost shocks are only partially passed on to round-trip voyage rates. Oil exports from the Arabian Gulf also decline, reflecting lower demand for VLCCs. Positive utilization shocks are associated with higher profits, a slight increase in time charter rates and slightly lower fuel prices and oil export volumes. Tanker supply and tanker demand shocks have persistent effects on time charter rates, round-trip voyage rates, the volume of oil exports, fuel prices, and profits with the expected sign. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Shipping Vlcc Crude oil Bunker fuel Tanker Voyage Time charter Profits Exports Pass-through |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14798 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543729 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian,Nomikos Nikos,Xiaoqing Zhou. DP14798 A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
