| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14852 |
| DP14852 Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2 | |
| Chryssi Giannitsarou; Stephen Kissler; Flavio Toxvaerd | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-07 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper offers projections of future transmission dynamics for SARS-CoV-2 in an SEIRS model with demographics and waning immunity. In a stylized optimal control setting calibrated to the USA, we show that the disease is endemic in steady state and that its dynamics are characterized by damped oscillations. The magnitude of the oscillations depends on how fast immunity wanes. The optimal social distancing policy both curbs peak prevalence and postpones the infection waves relative to the uncontrolled dynamics. Last, we perform sensitivity analysis with respect to the duration of immunity, the infection fatality rate and the planning horizon. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Covid-19 Economic epidemiology Social distancing Waning immunity Optimal policy for infection control Seirs |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14852-0 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543790 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chryssi Giannitsarou,Stephen Kissler,Flavio Toxvaerd. DP14852 Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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