| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14868 |
| DP14868 Debt Crises, Fast and Slow | |
| Giancarlo Corsetti; Seung Hyun Maeng | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-10 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | With the Covid-19 pandemic, public debt around the world is rising to unprecedented heights in peacetime. We revisit the mechanisms by which, driven by self-fulfilling expectations, both slow-moving and rollover (fast) crises are pervasive at intermediate and high levels of debt, respectively. In both strategic-default and debt-limit models, belief-driven shifts in market assessment of risk translate into shifts of the market debt tolerance thresholds---to such an extent that sovereigns may lose market access even if they were able to borrow risk free in a ``good equilibrium''. Long debt maturities may/may not shield countries from this adverse scenario. In a sunspot equilibrium, the threat of belief-driven crises may not be enough for the government to deleverage in a recession, and bring debt to default-free levels. Unless the initial debt is close enough to the critical threshold above which the country becomes vulnerable to such crises, the government will keep borrowing, gambling on economic recovery in the future. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Sovereign default Self-fulfilling crises Expectations Debt sustainability |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14868 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543806 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Giancarlo Corsetti,Seung Hyun Maeng. DP14868 Debt Crises, Fast and Slow. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
