Gateway to Think Tanks
来源类型 | Discussion paper |
规范类型 | 论文 |
来源ID | DP14880 |
DP14880 Inflation Spike and Falling Product Variety during the Great Lockdown | |
Xavier Jaravel; Martin O'Connell | |
发表日期 | 2020-06-12 |
出版年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
摘要 | We characterize inflation dynamics during the Great Lockdown using scanner data covering millions of transactions for fast-moving consumer goods in the United Kingdom. We show that there was a significant and widespread spike in inflation. First, aggregate month-to-month inflation was 2.4% in the first month of lockdown, a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months. Over half of this increase stems from reduced frequency of promotions. Consumers' purchasing power was further eroded by a reduction in product variety, leading to a further 85 basis points increase in the effective cost of living. Second, 96% of households have experienced inflation in 2020, while in prior years around half of households experienced deflation. Third, there was inflation in most product categories, including those that experienced output falls. Only 13% of product categories experienced deflation, compared with over half in previous years. While market-based measures of inflation expectations point to disinflation or deflation, these findings indicate a risk of stagflation should not be ruled out. We hope our approach can serve as a template to facilitate rapid diagnosis of inflation risks during economic crises, leveraging scanner data and appropriate price indices in real-time. |
主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Public Economics |
关键词 | inflation Great lockdown |
URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14880 |
来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543818 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Xavier Jaravel,Martin O'Connell. DP14880 Inflation Spike and Falling Product Variety during the Great Lockdown. 2020. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。