G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP14880
DP14880 Inflation Spike and Falling Product Variety during the Great Lockdown
Xavier Jaravel; Martin O'Connell
发表日期2020-06-12
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要We characterize inflation dynamics during the Great Lockdown using scanner data covering millions of transactions for fast-moving consumer goods in the United Kingdom. We show that there was a significant and widespread spike in inflation. First, aggregate month-to-month inflation was 2.4% in the first month of lockdown, a rate over 10 times higher than in preceding months. Over half of this increase stems from reduced frequency of promotions. Consumers' purchasing power was further eroded by a reduction in product variety, leading to a further 85 basis points increase in the effective cost of living. Second, 96% of households have experienced inflation in 2020, while in prior years around half of households experienced deflation. Third, there was inflation in most product categories, including those that experienced output falls. Only 13% of product categories experienced deflation, compared with over half in previous years. While market-based measures of inflation expectations point to disinflation or deflation, these findings indicate a risk of stagflation should not be ruled out. We hope our approach can serve as a template to facilitate rapid diagnosis of inflation risks during economic crises, leveraging scanner data and appropriate price indices in real-time.
主题Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Public Economics
关键词inflation Great lockdown
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp14880
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543818
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Xavier Jaravel,Martin O'Connell. DP14880 Inflation Spike and Falling Product Variety during the Great Lockdown. 2020.
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