| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14938 |
| DP14938 The Making of Hawks and Doves | |
| Ulrike M. Malmendier; Stefan Nagel; Zhen Yan | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-06-24 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Personal experiences of inflation strongly influence the hawkish or dovish leanings of central bankers. For all members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) since 1951, we estimate an adaptive learning rule based on their lifetime inflation data. The resulting experience-based forecasts have significant predictive power for members' FOMC voting decisions, the hawkishness of the tone of their speeches, as well as the heterogeneity in their semi-annual inflation projections. Averaging over all FOMC members present at a meeting, inflation experiences also help to explain the federal funds target rate, over and above conventional Taylor rule components. |
| 主题 | Financial Economics ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | monetary policy Experience effects Availability bias Inflation forecasts Federal funds rate |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14938 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543882 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ulrike M. Malmendier,Stefan Nagel,Zhen Yan. DP14938 The Making of Hawks and Doves. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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