| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15003 |
| DP15003 Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations | |
| Francesco Bianchi; Sydney Ludvigson; Sai Ma | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-07-06 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper combines a data rich environment with a machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors ("belief distortions") embedded in survey responses. We find that distortions are large even for professional forecasters, with all respondent-types over-weighting their own beliefs relative to publicly available information. Forecasts of inflation and GDP growth oscillate between optimism and pessimism by large margins, with biases in expectations evolving dynamically in response to cyclical shocks. The results suggest that artificial intelligence algorithms can be productively deployed to correct errors in human judgement and improve predictive accuracy. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | beliefs Biases Machine learning Expectations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15003-2 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543951 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Francesco Bianchi,Sydney Ludvigson,Sai Ma. DP15003 Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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