| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15040 |
| DP15040 Italy in the Eurozone | |
| Christian Keuschnigg; Linda Kirschner; Michael Kogler; Hannah Winterberg | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-07-14 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Using a DSGE model with nominal wage rigidity, we investigate two scenarios for the Italian economy. The first considers sustained policy commitment to reform. The results indicate the possibility of `growing out of bad initial conditions', if fiscal consolidation is combined with a program for bank recovery and for competitiveness and growth. The second scenario involves a strong asymmetric recession. It is likely to be very severe under the restrictions of the currency union. A benign exit from the Eurozone with stable investor expectations could substantially dampen the short-run impact. Stabilization is achieved by monetary expansion, combined with exchange rate depreciation. However, investor panic may lead to escalation. Capital market reactions would offset the benefits of monetary autonomy and much delay the recovery. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Italy Competitiveness Sovereign debt Bad loans Bank recapitalization Eurozone crisis |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15040 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543991 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christian Keuschnigg,Linda Kirschner,Michael Kogler,et al. DP15040 Italy in the Eurozone. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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