| 来源类型 | Discussion paper
|
| 规范类型 | 论文
|
| 来源ID | DP15047
|
| DP15047 Incarceration versus probation? Long-run evidence from an anticipated reform. |
| Bastien Michel
|
| 发表日期 | 2020-07-16
|
| 出版年 | 2020
|
| 语种 | 英语
|
| 摘要 | How do individuals convicted to incarceration fare in terms of later crime and labor market outcomes compared to those who receive a non-custodial sentence? We answer this question by taking advantage of a Danish reform whereby most offenders tried for a drunk-driving crime were placed on probation rather than sentenced to incarceration. Our first key finding is that stakeholders anticipated the consequences of the reform as significant selection is observed in the nature of the cases tried before and after the reform. To measure its impact, we resort to a novel instrumental variable approach exploiting quasi-exogenous variation in the probability of being tried after the reform and therefore incarcerated, based on the crime date. We find that incarcerated offenders commit more crimes and have weaker ties to the labor market than those placed on probation. The effects are particularly strong among young offenders. Our findings suggest that economic precariousness is an important mechanism explaining subsequent criminal behavior. |
| 主题 | Labour Economics
|
| 关键词 | Crime
Employment
Incarceration
Recidivism
|
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15047
|
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
|
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物
|
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/543999
|
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Bastien Michel. DP15047 Incarceration versus probation? Long-run evidence from an anticipated reform.. 2020.
|
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