| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15098 |
| DP15098 Sentimental Business Cycles | |
| Morten Ravn; Evi Pappa; Andresa Helena Lagerborg | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-07-26 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We use fatalities in mass shootings in the U.S. as an instrument for autonomous declines in consumer confidence to estimate the dynamic causal effects of sentiment shocks. Declining confidence is recessionary and sets off a severe contraction in the labor market, while having less evident nominal effects. Sentiment shocks explain a non-negligible part of cyclical fluctuations. We demonstrate that in a model with heterogeneous agents, nominal rigidities and search-and-matching frictions, a wave of pessimism can take the economy from a normal state on a path towards a high-unemployment sunspot limit, inducing dynamics that resemble the empirical patterns. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Consumer confidence Instrumental variables Demand shocks Incomplete markets Search and matching |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15098 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544054 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Morten Ravn,Evi Pappa,Andresa Helena Lagerborg. DP15098 Sentimental Business Cycles. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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