全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP15107 Caveats for Economists: Epidemiology-Based Modelling of COVID19 and Model Misspecifications

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP15107
	DP15107 Caveats for Economists: Epidemiology-Based Modelling of COVID19 and Model Misspecifications
	Yinon Bar-On; Tatiana Baron; Ron Milo; Eran Yashiv
发表日期	2020-07-29
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	Rapidly expanding research on COVID19 in Economics typically posits an economy subject to a model of epidemiological dynamics, which is at the core of the analysis. We place this model on the foundations of an epidemiological analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 virus transmission timescales. The contribution is twofold. First, we formulate a full model with epidemiologically-based and clinically-based parameterization. The model features two blocks: an infection transmission block, described by the SEIR-Erlang model, and a clinical block, characterizing the development of symptoms, hospitalization, ICU admission, and recovery or death. The latter is important for the analysis of dynamics of the public health system. Second, we show that there is often serious mis-specification of the model, erroneously characterizing a relatively slow-moving disease, thereby distorting the policymaker decisions towards less severe, delayed intervention. Moreover, the scale of the disease is under-estimated. We also discuss misguided modelling of lockdown policies.
主题	Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	The economy and epidemiological dynamics Covid19 Transmission timescales Optimal policy
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp15107
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544066
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yinon Bar-On,Tatiana Baron,Ron Milo,et al. DP15107 Caveats for Economists: Epidemiology-Based Modelling of COVID19 and Model Misspecifications. 2020.