全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP15139 Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP15139
	DP15139 Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits
	Tamma Carleton; Amir Jina; Michael Delgado; Michael Greenstone; Solomon M. Hsiang; Andrew Hultgren; Robert Kopp; Kelly McCusker; Ishan Nath; James Rising; Ashwin Rode; Hee Kwon (Samuel) Seo; Arvid Viaene; Jiacan Yuan; Alice Tianbo Zhang
发表日期	2020-08-06
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	Using 40 countries’ subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships and extrapolate them to countries without data today and into a future with climate change. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly. Critically, this relationship is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate. Using a revealed preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs, we estimate that the mean global increase in mortality risk due to climate change, accounting for adaptation benefits and costs, is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100 under a high emissions scenario. Notably, today’s cold locations are projected to benefit, while today’s poor and hot locations have large projected damages. Finally, our central estimates indicate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mortality-related damages of $36.6 under a high emissions scenario and using a 2% discount rate, with an interquartile range accounting for both econometric and climate uncertainty of [-$7.8, $73.0]. Under a moderate emissions scenario, these damages are valued at $17.1 [-$24.7, $53.6]. These empirically grounded estimates exceed the previous literature’s estimates by an order of magnitude.
主题	Development Economics
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp15139-0
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544102
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tamma Carleton,Amir Jina,Michael Delgado,et al. DP15139 Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits. 2020.