全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP15154 COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP15154
	DP15154 COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows
	Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Cem Çakmaklı; Selva Demiralp; Sevcan Yesiltas
发表日期	2020-08-10
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for emerging markets using a framework that combines a SIR model with data on international and intersectoral linkages for a small open economy. We use this framework to estimate the sectoral COVID costs for Turkey. Domestic infection rates feed directly into both sectoral supply and sectoral demand shocks. Sectoral demand shocks additionally capture foreign infection rates through external demand. Infection rates at home and abroad can change differentially with different lockdown policies and social distancing measures. We use real-time credit card purchases to pin down the magnitude of these demand shocks. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under an early full lockdown of 39 days at the onset of the pandemic. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy because of the low external demand that amplifies the costs through international input-output linkages. We document a strong relationship between sectoral costs of COVID-19 and net capital flows into that sector, implying a tight connection between domestic fiscal space and external finance in emerging markets.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; International Trade and Regional Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth
关键词	Globalization Infections External finance I-o tables Sectoral heterogeneity
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp15154
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544122
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,Cem Çakmaklı,Selva Demiralp,et al. DP15154 COVID-19 and Emerging Markets: A SIR Model, Demand Shocks and Capital Flows. 2020.