| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15171 |
| DP15171 Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: a Nonlinear Analysis | |
| Seppo Honkapohja; George W. Evans; Kaushik Mitra | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-08-17 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Stagnation and fiscal policy are examined in a nonlinear stochastic New-Keynesian model with adaptive learning. There are three steady states. The steady state targeted by policy is locally but not globally stable under learning. A severe pessimistic expectations shock can trap the economy in a stagnation regime, underpinned by a low-level steady state, with falling inflation and output. A large fiscal stimulus may be needed to avoid or emerge from stagnation, and the impacts of forward guidance, credit frictions, central bank credibility and policy delay are studied. Our model encompasses a wide range of outcomes arising from pessimistic expectations shocks. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Stagnation trap Expectations Fiscal policy Adaptive learning New-keynesian model |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15171 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544141 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Seppo Honkapohja,George W. Evans,Kaushik Mitra. DP15171 Expectations, Stagnation and Fiscal Policy: a Nonlinear Analysis. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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