| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15200 |
| DP15200 Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration | |
| Inga Heiland; Gabriel Felbermayr; Jasmin Gröschl | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-08-25 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose novel estimates of the economic consequences of undoing European Integration. Using a quantitative general equilibrium trade model for 43 countries and 50 goods and services sectors, we disentangle and decompose two important layers of complexity: First, European integration is governed by various, partly overlapping arrangements – the customs union, the single market, the common currency union, the Schengen Area, free trade agreements – and fiscal transfers, all of which affect trade costs, terms-of-trade, and gains from trade differently. Second, more than any other geography, decades of integration have led to dense cross-border input-output (IO) networks, which would endogenously readjust. We find disintegration to trigger statistically significant welfare losses of up to 21% of the 2014 baseline, but with a strong degree of heterogeneity across EU insiders. The welfare effects from undoing the Single Market dominate quantitatively, but the losses from dissolving the Schengen area or the Eurozone are substantial for many countries as well. Compared to a model variant without IO-linkages, the more complex model predicts statistically significant smaller losses from disintegration in the manufacturing sector but larger aggregate ones, a lesson that may carry over to other integration agreements. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | Structural gravity European trade integration General equilibrium Quantitative trade models |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15200 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544171 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Inga Heiland,Gabriel Felbermayr,Jasmin Gröschl. DP15200 Complex Europe: Quantifying the Cost of Disintegration. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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