G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP15244
DP15244 Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities
Lutz Kilian
发表日期2020-09-01
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric problems that have been overlooked in this literature. Once these problems are recognized, seemingly conflicting conclusions in the recent literature can be resolved. My analysis reaffirms the conclusion that the one-month oil supply elasticity is close to zero, which implies that oil demand shocks are the dominant driver of the real price of oil. The focus of this paper is not only on correcting some misunderstandings in the recent literature, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词Oil supply elasticity Oil demand elasticity Iv estimation Structural var Bayesian inference Oil price Gasoline price
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp15244
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544219
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Lutz Kilian. DP15244 Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities. 2020.
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