| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15244 |
| DP15244 Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities | |
| Lutz Kilian | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-09-01 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper examines the advantages and drawbacks of alternative methods of estimating oil supply and oil demand elasticities and of incorporating this information into structural VAR models. I not only summarize the state of the literature, but also draw attention to a number of econometric problems that have been overlooked in this literature. Once these problems are recognized, seemingly conflicting conclusions in the recent literature can be resolved. My analysis reaffirms the conclusion that the one-month oil supply elasticity is close to zero, which implies that oil demand shocks are the dominant driver of the real price of oil. The focus of this paper is not only on correcting some misunderstandings in the recent literature, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Oil supply elasticity Oil demand elasticity Iv estimation Structural var Bayesian inference Oil price Gasoline price |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15244 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544219 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lutz Kilian. DP15244 Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities. 2020. |
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