| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15282 |
| DP15282 Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate World | |
| Dmitriy Sergeyev; Neil Mehrotra | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-09-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Conditions of secular stagnation—low output growth g and low interest rates r—have counteracting effects on the cost of servicing public debt, r − g. Using data for ad- vanced economies, we document that r is often less than g, but r − g exhibits substan- tial variability over the medium-term. We build a continuous-time model in which the debt-to-GDP ratio is stochastic and r < g on average. We analytically characterize the distribution of the debt-to-GDP ratio, showing how two candidate explanations for low interest rates, slower trend growth and higher output risk, can lower the debt- to-GDP ratio. When the primary surplus is bounded above, we characterize a fiscal limit, above which default occurs, and a debt tipping point, above which the pub- lic debt is on an unsustainable path, but default does not occur immediately. Slower trend growth and higher output risk can paradoxically improve debt sustainability. A conservative calibration suggests a fiscal limit for the US of 184 percent of GDP and a tipping point of 115 percent of GDP. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Secular stagnation Public debt Debt sustainability Low interest rates Government default |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15282 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544258 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dmitriy Sergeyev,Neil Mehrotra. DP15282 Debt Sustainability in a Low Interest Rate World. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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