G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP15296
DP15296 Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets
Alain Kabundi; Franziska Ohnsorge
发表日期2020-09-15
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要The COVID-19-triggered collapse in oil prices in March and April 2020 was the seventh, and by far the most severe, in a series of such collapses since 1970. This paper, first, compares this most recent collapse and its drivers with previous ones in an event study. It finds that it was associated with an exceptionally severe plunge in oil demand. Second, in a local projections model, this paper estimates the implications of demand- and supply-driven oil price collapses for growth in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs). The paper finds that steep oil price collapses were associated with significant and lasting output losses in energy-exporting EMDEs but no meaningful output gains in energy-importing EMDEs. These results are robust to multiple robustness checks.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance
关键词Oil price decline Covid-19 pandemic Macroeconomic implications Supply factors Demand factors Local projections model
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp15296
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544274
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Alain Kabundi,Franziska Ohnsorge. DP15296 Implications of Cheap Oil for Emerging Markets. 2020.
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