| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15310 |
| DP15310 Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model | |
| Kurt Mitman; Douglas Hanley; Mark Bognanni; Daniel Kolliner | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-09-21 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Economic analysis of effective policies for managing epidemics requires an integrated economic and epidemiological approach. We develop and estimate a spatial, micro-founded model of the joint evolution of economic variables and the spread of an epidemic. We empirically discipline the model using new U.S. county-level data on health, mobility, employment outcomes, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) at a daily frequency. Absent policy or medical interventions, the model predicts an initial period of exponential growth in new cases, followed by a protracted period of roughly constant case levels and reduced economic activity. Nevertheless, if vaccine development proved impossible, and suppression cannot entirely eradicate the disease, a utilitarian policymaker cannot improve significantly over the laissez-faire equilibrium by using lockdowns. Conversely, if a vaccine will arrive within two years, NPIs can improve upon the laissez-faire outcome by dramatically decreasing the number of infectious agents and keeping infections low until vaccine arrival. Mitigation measures that reduce viral transmission (e.g., mask-wearing) both reduce the virus's spread and increase economic activity. |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Epidemics Economic policy Covid19 Econ-sir |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15310 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544288 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kurt Mitman,Douglas Hanley,Mark Bognanni,et al. DP15310 Economics and Epidemics: Evidence from an Estimated Spatial Econ-SIR Model. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
除非特别说明，本系统中所有内容都受版权保护，并保留所有权利。
