全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP15317 The 'Great Lockdown': Inactive Workers and Mortality by Covid-19

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP15317
	DP15317 The 'Great Lockdown': Inactive Workers and Mortality by Covid-19
	Nicola Borri; Francesco Drago; Chiara Santantonio; Francesco Sobbrio
发表日期	2020-09-25
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	In response to the Covid-19 outbreak, among other previous "non-pharmaceutical interventions'', on March 22, 2020 the Italian Government imposed an economic lockdown and ordered the closing of all non-essential economic activities. This paper estimates the causal effect of this measure on mortality by Covid-19 and on mobility patterns. The identification of the causal effect exploits the variation in the number of active workers across municipalities induced by the economic lockdown. The difference-in-difference empirical design compares outcomes in municipalities above and below the median variation in the share of active population before and after the lockdown within a province, also controlling for municipality-specific dynamics, daily-shocks at the provincial level and municipal unobserved characteristics. Our results show that the intensity of the economic lockdown is associated to a statistically significant reduction in mortality by Covid-19 and, in particular, for age groups between 30-64 and older. Back of the envelope calculations indicate that 4,793 deaths were avoided, in the 26 days between April 5 to April 30, in the 3,518 municipalities which experienced a more intense lockdown. Assuming linearity, a 1 percentage point reduction in the share of active population caused a 1.32 percentage points reduction in mortality by Covid-19. We also find that the economic lockdown, as expected, led to a reduction in human mobility. Several robustness checks corroborate our empirical findings.
主题	Labour Economics ; Public Economics
关键词	Economic lockdown Excess deaths Mobility
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp15317
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544296
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nicola Borri,Francesco Drago,Chiara Santantonio,et al. DP15317 The 'Great Lockdown': Inactive Workers and Mortality by Covid-19. 2020.