| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15323 |
| DP15323 COVID-19 and SME Failures | |
| Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas; Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan; Veronika Penciakova | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-09-28 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on business failures among small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) in seventeen countries using a large representative firm-level database. We use a simple model of firm cost-minimization and measure each firm’s liquidity shortfall during and after COVID-19. Our framework allows for a rich combination of sectoral and aggregate supply, productivity, and demand shocks. We estimate a large increase in the failure rate of SMEs under COVID-19 of nearly 9 percentage points, absent government support. Accommodation & Food Services, Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, Education, and Other Services are among the most affected sectors. The jobs at risk due to COVID-19 related SME business failures represent 3.1 percent of private sector employment. Despite the large impact on business failures and employment, we estimate only moderate effects on the financial sector: the share of Non Performing Loans on bank balance sheets would increase by up to 11 percentage points, representing 0.3 percent of banks’ assets and resulting in a 0.75 percentage point decline in the common equity Tier-1 capital ratio. We evaluate the cost and effectiveness of various policy interventions. The fiscal cost of an intervention that narrowly targets at risk firms can be modest (0.54% of GDP). How- ever, at a similar level of effectiveness, non-targeted subsidies can be substantially more expensive (1.82% of GDP). Our results have important implications for the severity of the COVID-19 recession, the design of policies, and the speed of the recovery. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance |
| 关键词 | Business failure Covid-19 Bankruptcy Smes |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15323 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544304 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas,Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan,Veronika Penciakova. DP15323 COVID-19 and SME Failures. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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