全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP15390 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP15390
	DP15390 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic
	Christian Alemán; Christopher Busch; Alexander Ludwig; Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis
发表日期	2020-10-20
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	We develop a novel empirical approach to identify the effectiveness of policies against a pandemic. The essence of our approach is the insight that epidemic dynamics are best tracked over stages, rather than over time. We use a normalization procedure that makes the pre-policy paths of the epidemic identical across regions. The procedure uncovers regional variation in the stage of the epidemic at the time of policy implementation. This variation delivers clean identification of the policy effect based on the epidemic path of a leading region that serves as a counterfactual for other regions. We apply our method to evaluate the effectiveness of the nationwide stay-home policy enacted in Spain against the Covid-19 pandemic. We find that the policy saved 15.9% of lives relative to the number of deaths that would have occurred had it not been for the policy intervention. Its effectiveness evolves with the epidemic and is larger when implemented at earlier stages.
主题	Labour Economics ; Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations ; Public Economics
关键词	Macroeconomics Pandemic Stages Covid-19 Stay-home Policy effects Identification
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp15390-0
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544375
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Christian Alemán,Christopher Busch,Alexander Ludwig,et al. DP15390 Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies Against a Pandemic. 2020.