| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15403 |
| DP15403 A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth | |
| Christiane Baumeister; Pierre Guerin | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-22 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, while other monthly measures have more mixed success. This global economic conditions indicator contains valuable information also for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. We use this indicator to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the US, the OECD area, and the world economy during the coronavirus pandemic and quantify the main factors driving the nowcasts. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Midas models Global economic conditions World gdp growth Nowcasting Forecasting Mixed frequency |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15403 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544388 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Christiane Baumeister,Pierre Guerin. DP15403 A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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