| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15414 |
| DP15414 The Geopolitics of International Trade in Southeast Asia | |
| Kerem Cosar; Benjamin Thomas | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-10-29 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | Motivated by the historically tense geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia, we simulate the potential closure of key maritime waterways in the region to predict the impact on trade and welfare. We generate initial (unobstructed) and counterfactual (rerouted) least-cost maritime paths between trading countries, and use the distances of these routes in a workhorse model of international trade to estimate welfare effects. We find heterogeneous and economically significant reductions in real GDP, and show the magnitude of welfare loss is directly correlated with military spending as a proportion of GDP, suggesting nations may be responding to economic security threats posed by such potential conflicts. |
| 主题 | International Trade and Regional Economics |
| 关键词 | International trade Quantitative trade models Military spending |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15414 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544402 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kerem Cosar,Benjamin Thomas. DP15414 The Geopolitics of International Trade in Southeast Asia. 2020. |
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