| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15423 |
| DP15423 The Scars of Supply Shocks | |
| Luca Fornero | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-04 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We study the effects of supply disruptions - for instance caused by the emergence of a pandemic - in an economy with Keynesian unemployment and endogenous productivity growth. By negatively affecting investment, even purely transitory negative supply shocks generate permanent output losses. The associated negative wealth effect depresses consumers' demand, which may even fall below the exogenous fall in supply. In this case, the optimal monetary policy response flips relative to conventional wisdom, as monetary expansions are needed to fight negative output gaps. If monetary policy is not expansionary enough a supply-demand doom loop emerges, causing a recession characterized by unemployment and weak productivity growth. Innovation policies, by fostering firms' investment, can restore full employment and healthy growth. |
| 主题 | Macroeconomics and Growth ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Supply shocks Covid-19 Hysteresis investment Endogenous growth monetary policy Fiscal policy Zero lower bound Keynesian growth |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15423 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544412 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luca Fornero. DP15423 The Scars of Supply Shocks. 2020. |
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