全球智库信息集成服务系统(G2TT): DP14594 Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike

G2TT

来源类型	Discussion paper
规范类型	论文
来源ID	DP14594
	DP14594 Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike
	Federico Di Pace; Luciana Juvenal; Ivan Petrella
发表日期	2020-11-11
出版年	2020
语种	英语
摘要	When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. We show that this is not the case: the effects of a positive export price shock do not mirror the effects of a negative import price shock. For our analysis, we construct a dataset of export and import price indices by matching commodity and manufacturing price data with trade shares for a sample of developing countries. We identify export price, import price, and global economic activity shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 30 percent of output fluctuations but export price shocks are more important than import price shocks for domestic business cycles. Global economic activity shocks, which simultaneously affect export and import prices, are largely undetected in the terms-of-trade measure but have large effects on domestic business cycles. We link our results to existing small open economy models used to study the transmission of terms-of-trade shocks.
主题	International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations
关键词	Terms of trade Commodity prices Business cycles World shocks
URL	https://cepr.org/publications/dp14594-2
来源智库	Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型	智库出版物
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544434
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Federico Di Pace,Luciana Juvenal,Ivan Petrella. DP14594 Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike. 2020.