| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP14594 |
| DP14594 Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike | |
| Federico Di Pace; Luciana Juvenal; Ivan Petrella | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-11 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | When analyzing terms-of-trade shocks, it is implicitly assumed that the economy responds symmetrically to changes in export and import prices. Using a sample of developing countries our paper shows that this is not the case. We construct export and import price indices using commodity and manufacturing price data matched with trade shares and separately identify export price, import price, and global economic activity shocks using sign and narrative restrictions. Taken together, export and import price shocks account for around 40 percent of output fluctuations but export price shocks are, on average, twice as important as import price shocks for domestic business cycles. Given that shifts in export and import prices have asymmetric effects on the economy, global economic activity shocks, which simultaneously affect export and import prices, are largely undetected in the terms of trade measure but have large effects on domestic business cycles. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Terms of trade Commodity prices Business cycles World shocks |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp14594-1 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544435 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Federico Di Pace,Luciana Juvenal,Ivan Petrella. DP14594 Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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