G2TT
来源类型Discussion paper
规范类型论文
来源IDDP15450
DP15450 The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations
Antoine Levy; Luca Antonio Ricci; Alejandro Werner
发表日期2020-11-13
出版年2020
语种英语
摘要This paper assesses the dynamic impact of global macroeconomic conditions, commodity price movements, shifts in portfolio preferences, and domestic shocks on fiscal outcomes—notably the budget deficit, its main components, and debt—across a wide range of countries. Heterogeneity is investigated across the level of development and other structural characteristics. Dynamics are explored via panel local projections, while robustness is assessed via dynamic panel and system GMM regressions. World growth, financial risk appetite, political events, and commodity export prices are key determinants of fiscal outcomes in EM, while domestic growth, commodity import prices, and banking crises appear to matter more in AE. Our estimates help quantify the amount of fiscal risk generated by various factors, and thus provide inputs for the design of potential insurance mechanisms or state-contingent debt instruments that could assist in smoothing fiscal fluctuations.
主题International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Public Economics
关键词Fiscal Deficit Debt Fluctuations Insurance Sovereign debt
URLhttps://cepr.org/publications/dp15450
来源智库Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom)
资源类型智库出版物
条目标识符http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544446
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Antoine Levy,Luca Antonio Ricci,Alejandro Werner. DP15450 The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations. 2020.
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