| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15450 |
| DP15450 The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations | |
| Antoine Levy; Luca Antonio Ricci; Alejandro Werner | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-13 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | This paper assesses the dynamic impact of global macroeconomic conditions, commodity price movements, shifts in portfolio preferences, and domestic shocks on fiscal outcomes—notably the budget deficit, its main components, and debt—across a wide range of countries. Heterogeneity is investigated across the level of development and other structural characteristics. Dynamics are explored via panel local projections, while robustness is assessed via dynamic panel and system GMM regressions. World growth, financial risk appetite, political events, and commodity export prices are key determinants of fiscal outcomes in EM, while domestic growth, commodity import prices, and banking crises appear to matter more in AE. Our estimates help quantify the amount of fiscal risk generated by various factors, and thus provide inputs for the design of potential insurance mechanisms or state-contingent debt instruments that could assist in smoothing fiscal fluctuations. |
| 主题 | International Macroeconomics and Finance ; Public Economics |
| 关键词 | Fiscal Deficit Debt Fluctuations Insurance Sovereign debt |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15450 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544446 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Antoine Levy,Luca Antonio Ricci,Alejandro Werner. DP15450 The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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