| 来源类型 | Discussion paper |
| 规范类型 | 论文 |
| 来源ID | DP15459 |
| DP15459 Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts | |
| Rava Azeredo da Silveira; Yeji Sung; Michael Woodford | |
| 发表日期 | 2020-11-16 |
| 出版年 | 2020 |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 摘要 | We propose a model of optimal decision making subject to a memory constraint. The constraint is a limit on the complexity of memory measured using Shannon's mutual information, as in models of rational inattention; but our theory differs from that of Sims (2003) in not assuming costless memory of past cognitive states. We show that the model implies that both forecasts and actions will exhibit idiosyncratic random variation; that average beliefs will also differ from rational-expectations beliefs, with a bias that fluctuates forever with a variance that does not fall to zero even in the long run; and that more recent news will be given disproportionate weight in forecasts. We solve the model under a variety of assumptions about the degree of persistence of the variable to be forecasted and the horizon over which it must be forecasted, and examine how the nature of forecast biases depends on these parameters. The model provides a simple explanation for a number of features of reported expectations in laboratory and field settings, notably the evidence of over-reaction in elicited forecasts documented by Afrouzi et al. (2020) and Bordalo et al. (2020a). |
| 主题 | Monetary Economics and Fluctuations |
| 关键词 | Rational inattention Over-reaction Survey expectations |
| URL | https://cepr.org/publications/dp15459 |
| 来源智库 | Centre for Economic Policy Research (United Kingdom) |
| 资源类型 | 智库出版物 |
| 条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.153/handle/2XGU8XDN/544455 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rava Azeredo da Silveira,Yeji Sung,Michael Woodford. DP15459 Optimally Imprecise Memory and Biased Forecasts. 2020. |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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